What factors contribute to the volatility of food prices? New global evidence

The adverse economic and social effects of the recent increases in food prices have prompted policymakers academics to reconsider potential causes such increases. This paper contributes existing literature by investigating causal oil prices, fertiliser global activity, geopolitical risk on international price volatility between January 1993 December 2021. research considers aggregate index various specific foods, including cereal, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, sugar. Glosten, Jagannathan, Runkle-generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (1,1) [GJR-GARCH(1,1)] model is employed estimate series, while causality-in-quantiles test conducted identify drivers for different regimes. analysis suggests heterogeneous results regarding significance linkages. More specifically, volatility affected under market conditions. causality also indicates that cereal most sensitive four considered variables. Likewise, critical factor affecting all commodities during almost conditions, activity limited predictive power. Finally, there strong evidence linkages are confirmed normal Policy recommendations subsequently derived.